As we move into fall when many of the spring-born feeder calves begin to come to market, forward-thinking cattle feeders and backgrounders will be doing some calculations to determine what they can pay for feeder calves, and/or what they should forward contract them for and some cow-calf producers will look at the possible returns to retaining the calves longer. To assist with this task UW-Madison Division of Extension has assembled a set of fall projections.
These projections are intended to serve as an initial guide. They are based on regional averages; therefore, the prices and scenarios will not apply to every feedlot operation. Producers are strongly encouraged to use their own numbers rather than the estimated costs to evaluate their specific situation. Access the 2022 Fall Projections.
Fall 2022 purchase prices were determined by looking at October area feeder sales in western Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota. Projected sale prices were estimated by looking at futures contract prices and taking into account seasonal and cyclical trends in addition to current placements and animal breed influence on prices.
Market volatility can result in rapid changes in margins. The projections suggest there is opportunity for profit for some of the enterprises if cash prices follow what the futures market is predicting they will be. Price optimism is largely due to feed yards getting closer to current after over a year of backlogs from the COVID pandemic coupled with strong demand for beef, and a smaller 2020 calf crop and expected smaller calf crop in 2021.
For users to evaluate their own situation, we recommend using the UW-Madison Extension Feedlot Enterprise Budget that the projection sheets were adapted from. The fully functional Extension Feedlot Enterprise Budget Tool (xls) includes section tabs to help producers evaluate their operation more accurately. In the projections spreadsheets, the yardage calculator and ration cost calculator components are not functional due to the way they are bundled together into one spreadsheet. Customizable sections include Feed Costs, Yardage, and Labor and Management. Using the enterprise budget tool or similar tools with your own numbers is more valuable to help you with your decisions.
The projections include the following twelve different feedlot related enterprises that are summarized on the first tab of the file. Each enterprise projection has its own sheet within the file.
- Holstein bull calf birth to 400 lbs
- Dairy x Beef cross calf birth to 400 lbs
- Dairy x Beef cross steers 400-1400 lbs
- Holstein steers 400-800 lbs
- Holstein steers 400-1450 lbs
- Holstein steers 800-1450 lbs
- Pre-conditioned feeder calves 500-600 lbs
- Beef feeder steer calves 500-1400 lbs
- Beef feeder heifer calves 475-1250 lbs
- Beef feeder calves background 500-900 lbs
- Finish beef yearlings 800-1400 lbs
- Cull cows 1200-1400 lbs
